Behind Trump’s Greenland Comments

 Both the Trump and Biden administrations have warned about rising risks in the Arctic over the last 8 years

President-elect Donald Trump’s recent remarks about potentially using military or economic measures to control Greenland have sparked global concerns. While some view his comments as extreme, there is a longstanding consensus within the U.S. national security community that China’s and Russia’s growing influence in the Arctic is worrisome. Trump has made similar statements regarding the Panama Canal, expressing frustration over the growing influence of Chinese state-owned companies in its operations. “I’m not going to commit to that,” Trump said on Jan. 7 when asked if he would rule out using military or economic coercion to control both Greenland and the Panama Canal. His comments during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort left many reporters puzzled, prompting repeated questions for clarification. He emphasized that the United States needs both regions for economic and national security reasons. One of the benefits of Trump’s approach, whether intentional or not, is that it creates public discourse on issues that would typically be handled behind the scenes, Michael Walsh, a U.S. foreign policy expert said. “It stirs discussion and debate. And you’re seeing that right now. You hear people on the metro talking about Greenland and Panama.” For many, it’s unclear whether Trump intends to use military force or if he’s suggesting it as a negotiation tactic to change the status quo in both regions. “It could be a negotiating tactic—who knows?” Walsh added. However, he noted that understanding the context is important for the public to interpret Trump’s remarks. “One of the problems with this whole narrative that’s happening is that people don’t understand the context. Even most political leaders don’t understand the context,” he said, refer ring to the rising risks in Greenland, the world’s largest island. Walsh, who served as an adviser on Asia-Pacific security affairs for President Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign, highlighted U.S. concerns about the independence of Greenland and the Faroe Islands—two autonomous territories of Denmark. While Trump has only mentioned Greenland, the United States has been concerned about both territories, he noted. During Trump’s first term, the State Department worked to deepen ties with both islands to counter Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic. These concerns persisted under Biden, who introduced an Arctic strategy in 2022 to counter growing competition, especially China’s “Polar Silk Road.” Walsh noted that both administrations share similar views on the risks in the region. Despite Denmark being a close NATO ally, the United States fears that Denmark’s influence over these islands could fade over time if they move toward independence. Over the past eight years, risks have grown, partly due to domestic political dynamics in Denmark regarding the islands. “The U.S. and Denmark have had a long-standing partner ship, and it’s worked really well,” Walsh said. “I think that the  concern is that they might not be the partner of the United States in Greenland or the Faroe Islands in the future, if they become independent.” The government of Greenland responded to Trump’s comments, stating that “Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders” and that its future will be determined by its own people. However, Greenland expressed interest in strengthening ties with the United States, particularly in economic cooperation, mining, and development of its mineral resources. China in recent years has been ambitiously developing its commercial and military capabilities in the Arctic. In addition, Russian and Chinese warships are operating together more frequently in the region. “Greenland is important because the Arctic has become important,” said Gordon Chang, political commentator and China expert. “And China and Russia are seeking to control the Arctic.” The region was crucial during the Cold War because of the strategic sea lanes in the Atlantic, but after the Cold War, people largely for got about their importance, Chang added. Referencing 2008 estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey, a July report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) emphasized the region’s vast resources, including nearly 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. That represents about 22 percent of the world’s undiscovered conventional oil and natural gas. The Arctic also has trillions of dollars worth of minerals, including silver, copper, gold, nickel, iron ore, and rare earth elements. Greenland is also home to a large U.S. military base with missile warning and space-surveillance systems. “This is about critical minerals. This is about natural resources,” Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), who was tapped to serve as Trump’s national security adviser said. “The Chinese are now cranking out icebreakers and pushing up there as well. It’s oil and gas. It’s our national security.” Waltz pointed out that Russia has over 60 icebreakers, while the United States has only two—one of which had to return to home port last summer due to an electrical fire. Biden has remained silent about Trump’s remarks so far. Trump also reiterated his criticism of the high fees Panama imposes on the United States and its navy, particularly considering that the United States originally constructed the Panama Canal. He also made it clear that he would not allow China to gain control over the strategically important waterway. Chinese companies, including Landbridge Group and Hong Kong based CK Hutchison Holdings, currently operate terminals at both ends of the canal. Trump’s comments about the Panama Canal reflect growing concern among U.S. politicians over China’s expanding influence in Latin America. The State Department warned in 2022 that Beijing’s acquisition of technologies, facilities, and infrastructure in Latin America may have dual purposes. In an earlier lengthy post on Dec. 21, Trump said that Panama, not China, should manage the 51-mile waterway. “I’m very glad that President Trump raised the issue because the Chinese, through various means, have the ability to block the canal in wartime,” Chang said. In 1999, Panama assumed full control of the canal, which has since become one of the busiest shipping routes in the world, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. On Dec. 31, Panama celebrated the 25th anniversary of the canal’s handover. Under the separate 1977 Neutrality Treaty, Panama and the United States agreed that the waterway would remain permanently neutral, with fair access and tolls for all countries. “Look, the Panama Canal is vital to our country. It’s being operated by China. We gave the Panama Canal to Panama. We didn’t give it to China, and they’ve abused it. They’ve abused that gift,” Trump said during his Jan. 7 press conference. Many Democrats, however, have criticized these comments, dismissing them as distractions. “House Democrats believe that we are not sent to Washington to invade Greenland, rename the Gulf of Mexico, or seize the Panama Canal by force,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said during a press conference. He said their priority is addressing the rising costs facing American families.